Crisis Group Venezuela

Background

The death from cancer of Venezuela's long-serving President Hugo Chavez in March 2013, before he could be sworn in for his third, six-year term, triggered a fresh presidential election the following month which was won by his annointed successor, Nicolas Maduro. But the narrowness of Maduro's victory over opposition candidate Henrique Capriles - less than 250,000 votes out of almost 15 million cast - left the government weakened and poorly equipped to deal with a gathering economic and social crisis. It also diminished the new president's standing within the chavista movement, whose internal factions were traditionally held together largely by the authority of Chavez himself. The absence of solid state institutions, eroded during the Chavez years, means Venezuela is ill-prepared for any kind of democratic transition, raising serious doubts about its political stability in the medium term.

Impact

The report Dangerous Uncertainty ahead of Venezuela's Elections was well received in the media and quoted by relevant agencies, both in Venezuela and abroad. Key contacts were established with public officers in the electoral body, former collaborators of the government, and the opposition coalition. Also, Crisis Group is consulted about the recent political crisis and engaged in dialogues with regional organizations about how to support a peaceful settlement of the conflict.